Ethiopian primer ministers Meles Zenawi have been on the power since 1991 for 18 years and now his party is planning the so-called national election 2010 to rule again for additional five years. Many Ethiopians are saying no vote to him even so the election result will conclude in favor of his victory. This document presents some personal opinion why Meles will not get vote from the majority of Ethiopians if the election become free and fair.
Reasons to qualify Meles Zenaw as not representing the will of most EthiopiansDemocracy succeeds when government, in some broad sense, represents the will of the people. People are rational actors, and thus their actions reveal what their values and preferences have been. It is known that voters have many reasons and many opinions to elect a given candidate but on my opinion the following reasons are the voters driving forces to qualify Meles Zenaw as not representing the will of the Ethiopian people. Hence, people will punish him by voting against him if the election become free and fair.
By nature every body want a positive change: change in cloth, change in food, change in working environment, change of boss, change in education level …etc. Hence, it is human nature that the majority of population wants a modification in law and change of the governer.
As per Vikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Presidents_of_the_United_States
Observe the trend on political party, the presidents names and the political party on power. Ethiopians deserve the similar things.
a) Like many countries, Ethiopians by nature of human being we need no static democracy. Ethiopian constitution need modifications so that reflect ethiopian current life.
b) The constitution is not a biblical rules, human nature and interest change so should be our constitution. The laws should reflect the current Ethiopian life. Observe on the following link how the most perfect democracy in the earth, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_United_States_Constitution
the USA democracy is accepting modification or amendiment in their constitution while the imperfect democracy in ethiopia is not accepting amendiment in our constitution.
Democratic representation can be assured if informed citizens freely elect their leaders, and those leaders stand for reelection at some regular interval. The following result is just taken from National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE), which is taken knowing that this result is treated favorably to EPRDF (governor). The result was so reported because of international observer and more educated citizen concentration were high. They could no easily change the result. Knowing these if we see the result almost in all major cities they have lost the election. Hence, if in major cities where educated peoples are concentrated they have lost the elections by default in the area where are less informed voters i.e. rural peoples are exposed to some influence. In Ethiopia it is clear that most citizen comes from the rural area and they have constant communication with their parents living in rural area.
The bellow given table 1 show a clear victory in major cities of ethiopa
1) CUD won on 10 cities out of 18, a victory on a total 55.6%, on the other hand
2) EPRDF won on 5 cities out of 18 total 27.8%
3) Others polical parties 16.6%
Table 1
Major capital cities (older and current administration structure)
Winner of election in the city as per NEBE
1 Addis ababa, wone CUD
2 Gonder Ketema, wone CUD
3 Awassa, wone CUD
4 Jimma Ketema, wone CUD
5 Asala wone, CUD
6 Nekemt, wone UEDF
7 Goba wone OPDO (EPRDF)
8 Harar, wone HNL+EPRDF
9 Dase, wone CUD
10 Mekele, wone TPLF (EPRDF)
11 Debere Mrkos, wone CUD
12 Arbaminch, wone CUD
13 Matu, OPDO (EPRDF)
14 Bahirdar, CUD
15 Adama (Naziret), wone CUD+UEDF+OPDO(EPRDF)
16 Asaita, wone ANDP
17 Jijiga, wone SPDP
18 Gambela Medebegr, wone GPDM
Economic issues automaticaly disqualify to Meles to be re-elected. The economy of average citizen is becoming bad. The polarization of nation is becoming clear each time is more visible the poor person becoming more poorer and the rich becoming more richer. The majorities of Ethiopian citezen are unhappy by the economic bad development. The following YouTube video gives an overall opinion about the economical crisis of the common citizen and dialog in parliament of some opposition party members with the dictator Meles http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bcXFVpP_p84&feature=player_embedded
Some key issues are:
1) 9 million people are on luck of food while Meles is dictating more than 10% economic development for more than 5 consecutive years. The reality and the figure about economic double digit grow are unmatched. Common people complain for shortage of water, no electricity, no medicine, construction stopped due to shortage of cement, import product out-of market due to shortage of foreign currency, which mean people run out of money and the life is becoming hard and hard through the progress of time.
Major capital cities (older and current administration structure)
Winner of election in the city as per NEBE
1 Addis ababa, wone CUD
2 Gonder Ketema, wone CUD
3 Awassa, wone CUD
4 Jimma Ketema, wone CUD
5 Asala wone, CUD
6 Nekemt, wone UEDF
7 Goba wone OPDO (EPRDF)
8 Harar, wone HNL+EPRDF
9 Dase, wone CUD
10 Mekele, wone TPLF (EPRDF)
11 Debere Mrkos, wone CUD
12 Arbaminch, wone CUD
13 Matu, OPDO (EPRDF)
14 Bahirdar, CUD
15 Adama (Naziret), wone CUD+UEDF+OPDO(EPRDF)
16 Asaita, wone ANDP
17 Jijiga, wone SPDP
18 Gambela Medebegr, wone GPDM
Economic issues automaticaly disqualify to Meles to be re-elected. The economy of average citizen is becoming bad. The polarization of nation is becoming clear each time is more visible the poor person becoming more poorer and the rich becoming more richer. The majorities of Ethiopian citezen are unhappy by the economic bad development. The following YouTube video gives an overall opinion about the economical crisis of the common citizen and dialog in parliament of some opposition party members with the dictator Meles http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bcXFVpP_p84&feature=player_embedded
Some key issues are:
1) 9 million people are on luck of food while Meles is dictating more than 10% economic development for more than 5 consecutive years. The reality and the figure about economic double digit grow are unmatched. Common people complain for shortage of water, no electricity, no medicine, construction stopped due to shortage of cement, import product out-of market due to shortage of foreign currency, which mean people run out of money and the life is becoming hard and hard through the progress of time.
2. As per the foreign based Ethiopian sources, inflation in Ethiopia has reached an more than 35% in 2008 while the government indicate that it is less than 20%. In this condition the salary of common state office workers, teachers, common military staffs, common Police and security staffs are devaluated to indicate salary decrease. Many households are said to be already dependent on the government cereal handouts. In the country where over 80% of the population lives below poverty line, inflationary stress force the basic survival of the majority of the population at stake. According to UN an estimated 9 million Ethiopians needed urgent food aid for 2008.Similar economic crisis phenomena was seen on both previous regimen that I have seen on my life of 40s years, which conduced both forced government change in Ethiopia.
1) Under the imperial regime, the country's agricultural and industrial performance was poor. An effort to talk about the success of the emperor on bringing Ethiopian development can be mentioned only the development of Ethiopian Airlines. As a result and the big problem on case of Walo´s food deficiency forced many Ethiopians to support the 1974 revolution in hopes that it would improve their standard of living on all over the nation.
2) The Derg (Ethiopia's Marxist government during 1974 – 1991) could do wide range of political, economic, and social reforms. Adding the destruction of Soviet Union and the gain of power on the western country part the internal war got better balance to the Tigrayan and Eritrean´s guerrilla warfare.
Due to these issues, supported by mass that was unsatisfied by economic crisis and Derg´s dictatorship administration EPRDF headed by Meles Zenawi could clamp into the power in Ethiopia. Similar things looks like to happen on the presente situation.
Since for many years of the election in ethiopia involves mainly one candidate (EPRDF) with whom the voters are already quite familiar but since the previous years many Ethiopians could see a new highly compitant candidate (e.g. CUD), now Ethiopian peoples are aware that they will vote to candidates who have not been around for multiple elections... To no elect the same ruling party again and again they may follow the recommendations of trusted politicians or social groups with whom the voters identify trough mass communication advertisements.
Since for many years of the election in ethiopia involves mainly one candidate (EPRDF) with whom the voters are already quite familiar but since the previous years many Ethiopians could see a new highly compitant candidate (e.g. CUD), now Ethiopian peoples are aware that they will vote to candidates who have not been around for multiple elections... To no elect the same ruling party again and again they may follow the recommendations of trusted politicians or social groups with whom the voters identify trough mass communication advertisements.
Ways of Meles may get few genuine votes
Meles Zenawi has been on power during all these years using different methods and systems. It is a fact that historically all bad rulers are on power by the support of some circle of the population. Hence, on Ethiopian condition, the only way the EPRDF (Meles government) may get few genuine votes are from:
Meles Zenawi has been on power during all these years using different methods and systems. It is a fact that historically all bad rulers are on power by the support of some circle of the population. Hence, on Ethiopian condition, the only way the EPRDF (Meles government) may get few genuine votes are from:
1. Tigrai nationality voters, this is very clear to expect that Meles stand for Tigreans and to develop the “Great tigrai Republic”. No comment is required on this regards.
2. Voters beliving on Cult of personality, the voters who does not know their right due to more than 17 years of massive propaganda. They vote just to vote for the candidate with whom they are already familiar (EPRDF). Generally these voters believe on personality cult because Meles used mass media to create an idealized public image. He said many times there is no one to replace hime, Ethiopia without EPRDF will be on ethic war, Ethiopia without war will be disintegrated and peace will be absent in ethiopia like Somalia, Ruand … etc.
2. Voters beliving on Cult of personality, the voters who does not know their right due to more than 17 years of massive propaganda. They vote just to vote for the candidate with whom they are already familiar (EPRDF). Generally these voters believe on personality cult because Meles used mass media to create an idealized public image. He said many times there is no one to replace hime, Ethiopia without EPRDF will be on ethic war, Ethiopia without war will be disintegrated and peace will be absent in ethiopia like Somalia, Ruand … etc.
3. Voters wishing to be safe on the current and future EPRDF impair, since the last election was not worked out, they fear that no change will occur. This force them to give the vote to EPRDF. The negative result to him/her self during last election will force them to give a vote to EPRDF.
4. Voters that consider Viability of the case, these voters only consider candidates that have a good chance of winning by their personal judgment. Those probabilities observe our historical result on vote processing and they decide on EPRDF because of his current monopoly on the governance stage, luck of experience of opposition party and similarity of the alternatives to each other on opposition party. Those voters are potentially faced with a real dilemma in coping with cognitive limitations. These may change their
5. Low level of information in rural area force voters to give their vote randomly. since there are limitation on the amount of knowledge, experience or sophistication on election process aided with the government intension of confusing them the rural people may give vote to EPRDF in condition of less vote control strategy and no international observers, it is probable that rural peoples votes be unwillingly counted as vote to EPRDF.
Conclusion
On what ever situation, the majority of Ethiopian people are fed up of the 18 years of the same face, the same talk, the same rule, the same even more tight control, more hopeless on the future, less right to self expression, untrue legal services. Even so it is expected that the election will be unfair, not free and Meles Zenawi have few circle of reliable voters. Most of Ethiopians, we are sure that if favorable condition happen at the time of election, Ethiopians will vote to make a change on ruling person or/& political party. Our planet is under the rule of change, world politics, economics, world leaders, world sport, culture … every thing is changing so by no exception Ethiopians are looking for change in our system of governance. Hence, Ethiopians are chasing for change on our democracy so that the current economical and social crises get better. God bless Ethiopian voters.
On what ever situation, the majority of Ethiopian people are fed up of the 18 years of the same face, the same talk, the same rule, the same even more tight control, more hopeless on the future, less right to self expression, untrue legal services. Even so it is expected that the election will be unfair, not free and Meles Zenawi have few circle of reliable voters. Most of Ethiopians, we are sure that if favorable condition happen at the time of election, Ethiopians will vote to make a change on ruling person or/& political party. Our planet is under the rule of change, world politics, economics, world leaders, world sport, culture … every thing is changing so by no exception Ethiopians are looking for change in our system of governance. Hence, Ethiopians are chasing for change on our democracy so that the current economical and social crises get better. God bless Ethiopian voters.
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